GETZ’S UNDERDOG THEOREM A FRESH APPROACH TO BETTING PRO FOOTBALL
By Howard Schwartz--Gambler's Book Shop
One of the unique and refreshing new “how-to” bet pro football books to hit the Gambler’s Book Shop shelves in many a year is Eddie Getz’s The Underdog Theorem: How to Bet on the NFL and Win While Outperforming Wall Street (214 pages, paper bound, $14.95). Well-priced and under-hyped, the book may be the sleeper of the year.
Getz takes a rational approach to risk-taking and betting. “You should never risk more than you can afford to lose,” and examines both the upside and downside of gambling, while emphasizing that without money management all is lost in the end run. In conjunction with this approach, he finds parallels between gambling and Wall Street. (Which is the riskier or more respected venture?) Getz probes, offers examples, underlines hypocrisies and compares betting pro football vs. investing in the stock market.
This book requires more than just a fast reading. It describes more than a decade’s journey as Getz gradually uncovers his theorem through hard work, examination of box scores, statistics, questioning and testing. For example, one of the questions he concentrates on concerns the debate about betting the money line versus pointspread,
Getz’s work is divided in two parts and reaches back to 1993 showing his thought progression and experimentation.
The book really gets rolling in fourth chapter where he discusses NFL Parity. Getz calls it “the state of being equal” and moves quickly into Statistical Dependence—Borrowing From Blackjack. He admits this may be the most “technical” chapter because it deals with statistical concepts such as the Gambler’s Fallacy and statistical dependence. He calls the Martingale Strategy, the “best worst gambling strategy around,” offers a fascinating discussion of the origins of the pointspread (a math teacher named Charles McNeil gets credit here); the spread’s purpose and he examines “vig” (the bet-taker’s edge).
After the detailed explanations, the book hits high gear in Chapter Nine where Getz puts his theorem to the test beginning with an important discussion on establishing a bankroll, then using the 2006 NFL season as examples of each segment of the theorem.
Well organized, The Underdog Theorem should appeal to readers involved in everything from day trading to anticipating trends in futures and long-term stock market patterns and definitely to those looking for a new approach to wagering on football.
(In the final segment, Getz lists his Internet site so readers can find his theorem’s latest progress and developments.
Two new football magazines are also worthy of mention arrived at GBC this week.
Sporting News College Preview ($7.99) provides excellent material on projected starters, rates the new recruits, schedules (including “games to watch”), power ratings for offense, defense, special teams and coaching. Also looks at coaches on the “hit seat” and who’s new to certain teams as coaches, looks at “freshmen of impact” and previews Division II and III teams, the NAIA, Junior colleges, top high schoolers and prep teams, complete schedules for each team and bowl schedules.
Pro Football Weekly Preview ($6.99) provides rosters for each teams, projected depth chart, 2008 schedules, 2007 results, spreads, game by game statistics , official web sites for each team, power rankings, rookies to watch, expected to be top TV matchups, new head coaches’ profiles, good guidance material for fantasy league play.
Any item reviewed here is available from Gambler's Book Shop (Gambler's Book Club). The store's web site is www.gamblersbook.com. You may order there using MasterCard, VISA or Discover (no CODs please) or by phoning the store any day except Sunday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Pacific time at 1-800-522-1777. Orders usually shipped the next working day. You may view the store's complete array of books, videos and software via the Web site or request a hard copy of the catalog be mailed free and first class. The store has moved to a new location: 1550 E. Tropicana #4, Las Vegas NV 89119.
